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Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart | 
 enlarge | Author: Ian Ayres
Publisher: Bantam
Category: Book
List Price: $25.00
Buy Used: $7.40
You Save: $17.60 (70%)
New (40) Used (39) Collectible (2) from $7.40
Rating:  76 reviews
Sales Rank: 13924
Media: Hardcover
Edition: 1
Pages: 272
Number Of Items: 1
Shipping Weight (lbs): 1
Dimensions (in): 9.1 x 6.1 x 1.1
ISBN: 0553805401
Dewey Decimal Number: 519.5
EAN: 9780553805406
ASIN: 0553805401
Publication Date: August 28, 2007
Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days
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Product Description
Why would a casino try and stop you from losing? How can a mathematical formula find your future spouse? Would you know if a statistical analysis blackballed you from a job you wanted?
Today, number crunching affects your life in ways you might never imagine. In this lively and groundbreaking new book, economist Ian Ayres shows how today's best and brightest organizations are analyzing massive databases at lightening speed to provide greater insights into human behavior. They are the Super Crunchers. From internet sites like Google and Amazon that know your tastes better than you do, to a physician's diagnosis and your child's education, to boardrooms and government agencies, this new breed of decision makers are calling the shots. And they are delivering staggeringly accurate results. How can a football coach evaluate a player without ever seeing him play? Want to know whether the price of an airline ticket will go up or down before you buy? How can a formula outpredict wine experts in determining the best vintages? Super crunchers have the answers. In this brave new world of equation versus expertise, Ayres shows us the benefits and risks, who loses and who wins, and how super crunching can be used to help, not manipulate us.
Gone are the days of solely relying on intuition to make decisions. No businessperson, consumer, or student who wants to stay ahead of the curve should make another keystroke without reading Super Crunchers.
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| Customer Reviews: Read 71 more reviews...
 Opinionated January 8, 2009
James M. McCready (Novi, MI)
Although I have only just begun to read the book, I'm disappointed so far at how opinionated the author is in his examples and comments. I'm still reading, so we'll see if it gets better.
 Superficial December 28, 2008
A reader
I think Ian Ayres knocked this book up in about 5 minutes hoping to cash in on the recent interest in data-driven startups. It is a real disappointment, superficial and patronising.
 Good Introduction to the Topic December 20, 2008
Ronald Pihlgren (Redmond, WA USA)
I'm not a a statistics or data mining expert but reading this book made me realize that I should learn more about those topics. Ayres presents compelling stories that show the power of using actual data to help make better decisions. He does this in a way that's accessible to non-experts. For example, I like the way he presented standard deviation in a way that was easy to understand.
Another point I got from reading the book is that at this point in time using the tools the book describes are easier and more prevelant than at earlier times in history. Both computer hardware and the internet are making that so.
If you are already a "math head" or looking for specific how-to's this isn't the book for you. But I found it a great introduction to a topic I will be investigating in more detail in the future.
Intuition vs. Data...and the winner is... November 20, 2008
bronx book nerd (Bronx, NY USA)
Neither. I think. Super Crunchers is a fascinating study of the ascension of data analysis and statistics in decision and policy-making in all realms of life, from business to government to health. Ayres shows us how the ability to collect millions upon millions of data points and number crunch them to study trends, analyze relationships and make predictions, has created a schism between professionals (lawyers, educators and doctors) for example, who use their experience and expertise with intution to come to decisions, and data crunchers, who us the power of computers to do the same. Ayres uses significant case studies to demonstrate how super crunching consistently beats intuition.
The caveat is that data crunchers are also human, ultimately, and may make errors in selecting the inputs and variables that are analyzed. In addition, Ayres warns against the possible misuse of super crunching to, for example, create pricing systems where every consumer would be charge a customized price for a product based on a super crunching analysis that predicts how much each unique consumer is willing to pay.
Nevertheless, Ayres demonstrates the decision making and analysis power of super crunching with examples from medicine, law enforcement and education. The message is that, in sum, super crunching is good and is something that we should all become familiar and comfortable with because it will not go away and will, indeed, be a strong complement to intuition.
The end of the expert? October 26, 2008
mrliteral
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
The gimmick in the TV show Numbers--and all crime shows have to have some sort of gimmick--is that a genius mathematician is able to help the FBI solve crimes. He particularly does so by finding patterns amongst the haze of large data sets. Ian Ayres's book Super Crunchers is a non-fiction look at a similar idea: the trend to find patterns and make predictions from analysis of large amounts of data.
The two principal ways that this is done--outlined in the first two chapters--is through regression and randomized trials. Simply put, regression sees how things have performed in the past and tries to extrapolate into the future; it's like plotting points in a graph and finding the best line or curve that fits that line. With randomized trials, you take a random sample from a population and see how these sample members react to a certain situation, such as a new drug or advertising slogan.
Of course, as Mark Twain is alleged to have said, there are lies, damn lies and statistics, and the same holds true with this "Super Crunching" of data. It only works properly if you know what you're doing and you're doing it properly. A well-known example (also cited in Freakonomics, which is kind of a companion piece to this book) deals with John Lott, the author of More Guns, Less Crime. According to Ayres (and the Freakonomics writers), Lott's crunching of the numbers had some serious errors, which when corrected, showed that the data actually contradicted his conclusion that the more guns owned in a community, the less crime took place. Did Lott purposely skew information to satisfy his own agenda or were these accidental mistakes (or did Ayres)? The reader can make his own judgment.
Beyond any issue with a particular study, the more relevant issue is the increasing prevalence of Super Crunching data and the effect it is having in determining business decisions and government policy. As cited early in the book, if the numbers are worked properly, a computer can do a better job predicting the performance of a wine or baseball player than a wine expert or a baseball scout.
In fact, often times the databases will provide better insight than experts. What does this mean? Will so-called experts go away? Will more and more decisions be based solely by computer with little or no human input? Is this a bad thing? Once again, the reader can make his own judgment as to whether this is a good or bad trend, though it is certainly an increasing one.
All this would mean little to the reader, however, if the writing is not good; fortunately, Ayres is successful at describing what Super Crunching is and what its possible ramifications are. You do not need to be a math or business expert to understand this book. And if Super Crunching is the future (even more than the present), it makes sense to read this book and get a glimpse of things to come.
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