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Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions | 
 enlarge | Author: Dan Ariely
Publisher: HarperCollins
Category: Book
List Price: $25.95
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Rating:  165 reviews
Sales Rank: 118
Format: Roughcut
Media: Hardcover
Pages: 304
Number Of Items: 1
Shipping Weight (lbs): 1.3
Dimensions (in): 9.1 x 6.5 x 1.2
ISBN: 006135323X
Dewey Decimal Number: 153.83
EAN: 9780061353239
ASIN: 006135323X
Publication Date: February 19, 2008
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Product Description
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When it comes to making decisions in our lives, we think we're in control. We think we're making smart, rational choices. But are we? In a series of illuminating, often surprising experiments, MIT behavioral economist Dan Ariely refutes the common assumption that we behave in fundamentally rational ways. Blending everyday experience with groundbreaking research, Ariely explains how expectations, emotions, social norms, and other invisible, seemingly illogical forces skew our reasoning abilities. Not only do we make astonishingly simple mistakes every day, but we make the same types of mistakes, Ariely discovers. We consistently overpay, underestimate, and procrastinate. We fail to understand the profound effects of our emotions on what we want, and we overvalue what we already own. Yet these misguided behaviors are neither random nor senseless. They're systematic and predictable—making us predictably irrational. From drinking coffee to losing weight, from buying a car to choosing a romantic partner, Ariely explains how to break through these systematic patterns of thought to make better decisions. Predictably Irrational will change the way we interact with the world—one small decision at a time.
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| Customer Reviews: Read 160 more reviews...
 Empirical investigations into the unconscious ways humans make seemingly rational decisions. January 9, 2009
Joshua G. Feldman (New York)
The crux of Dan Ariely's book "Predictably Irrational" is that humans believe they are rational creatures, yet often base supposedly rational decision making on a host of unconscious, often irrational, criteria. What makes this book riveting is the fact that Ariely then goes on to show you how he proves his arguments empirically - using experiments whose ingenious simplicity and perception will astound you. The implications of Ariely's experiments are profound: much of classical economics is wrong; public policy based on incorrect assumptions of human decision making are wrong; your own self perception that you are in full conscious control of yourself is wrong. Ariely is aware of these implications and makes them explicit at the end of each chapter. This makes "Predictably Irrational" function on a host of levels - individual psychology; group dynamics/sociology; public policy, and ultimately, culture and anthropology.
Ariely specifically addresses 12 specific issues over the 12 chapters in "Predictably Irrational". They constitute his work so far - and are meant to introduce you to a new science. They are not meant to constitute a complete analysis of the phenomena in any way. The 12 are:
1) price relativity - people subconsciously base their sense of price value on initial anchors formed irrationally - and then estimate relative values off that. This flies in the face of classical economics' assumption of a sense of absolute value.
2) supply and demand is a fallacy - examples of how product pricing is initially emotionally created are provided - including the case of Tahitian black pearls
3) how the promise of "free" distorts our estimation of value. This is the best chapter in the book and has a lovely section on how he tricks trick or treating kids into accepting less candy based on the allure of a "free" item in trade.
4) the difference between social and economic obligations and relationships (how you'll work harder for a friend than someone who is paying you - and how corporations try to be your friend but how the social aspect is fragile and easily lost when economics comes into things.
5) how arousal changes your decision making - and how it's impossible for individuals to predict how emotional heat will make them change their priorities. This area has a ton of valuable implications for why people don't save money, use condoms, or diet successfully even though the goals seem so valuable. The heat of the moment leads people to think differently. The empirical experiments deployed here are fascinating and icky (they involve college boys answering Kinsey-type questions during arousal - very weird).
6) procrastination
7) how owning something leads to over valuing it.
8) how people hate reducing their options - even if failing to commit to a particular course costs them far more than losing some options.
9) expectation - you get what you expect (often no matter what the reality is).
10) how price affects how effective placebos are.
11) honesty and cheating - a fabulous investigation into the exact mechanics how how/why people cheat/steal.
12) how people feel freer to cheat/steal if the items in question are not cash (even if they are tokens only one step removed from cash). Huge implications for business.
Part of the fascination isn't just that Ariely has investigated and written about these cool topics; it's that he also explains his insight into these issues (it relates to his recovery from serious injuries) and liberally peppers the narrative with descriptions of the collaborative process of social science and with personal anecdotes. Throughout the whole thing Ariely comes off as such a decent and perceptive human being. What a great pleasure this book is on such a variety of levels.
Fascinating study about how we view choices January 8, 2009
B. Mayberry (Sierra Vista, AZ)
I can't rave enough about this book. From cover to cover, I enjoyed reading about how people view choices and incentives and what kinds of forces exist that distract us from making sound decisions. It truly is a fascinating study into human psychology and its intersection with economics.
I personally disagree with the author's broader interpretation of his studies regarding economic policy and the need for intervention to save people from making poor choices. I argue that even if a person makes an objectively irrational choice, as long as that person perceives the decision to have made him or herself better off, it's ultimately a good choice. Again, objectively, this may not always be the case, but from a subjective standpoint it works.
 Cause for concern January 6, 2009
Jennifer Armstrong (Perth, Australia)
2 out of 7 found this review helpful
Predictably Irrational, a book by Daniel Ariely, is an offering from the late capitalist mindset, which presents its thesis with mindboggling simplicity: "If humans had internalised no social values whatsoever, except for those of capitalist materialism, how might we expect them to behave?
The answer -- wait for it -- is obvious, as it is the title of the book that Ariely has written.
Ariely finds these tokens of irrationality everywhere. He finds them in the fact that college males' values shift towards denial of the need to concern themselves with contraception when they are aroused (as compared to the values that they emote when they are not turned on.) He finds this irrationality in the disinclination of his wife to enjoy an epidural-free childbirth, despite having stuck her hand into some icy water for a long time, in preparation for confronting the labour pain. (As a skydive instructor once said to me, when I suggested to him that I could learn to skydive by working my way up, jumping from a 10 metre board, "don't bother. The two sensations are entirely different!") He finds irrationality in that some people are easily tricked into buying products or services they really don't need, if they think they're getting something extra, in the bargain, for nothing. However, Ariely holds, if they are getting a discount, they feel like they're not really getting something worth cherishing. They are thus "predictably irrational".
The examples he has chosen might well be considered peculiar, no less the conclusions he draws from his experiments, about "human nature". Ariely doesn't see fit to tell us, for instance, why it is that a woman might choose to go without an epidural during childbirth, in the first place. This we are presumed to already know. Perhaps we can emotionally attune ourselves to this poor woman's motivations by using the universalism that is somehow waiting readily within our "human nature" for just such interpretative tasks.
Ariely finds that people prefer the middle of the range value in terms of cheating (they will steal a little, but not much) and when it comes to buying objects for sale (they will choose the goods that are priced between the highly priced object and the low costing object). When it comes to cheating in tests, people will, however, tend to cheat less if they are forced to think about the "ten commandments" just prior to the testing. However, they may not know what the contents of the ten commandments are, Ariely says. What is happening, in effect, is that an alternative value system from that of the hegemonic one -- capitalism -- is simply latching on to minds and taking hold of them. To introduce the bible into human interactions might be a good thing, thinks Ariely. (At least we can be reassured,on the basis of all that Ariely has been trying to tell us, that such an introduction would be merely irrational -- and hence, presumably, inconsequential -- just like everything else in a system that is organised on the basis of capital.
People -- the author seems to be trying to tell us -- are irrational things. This goes for their morality and everything about them. We might try to tweak things here or there to make them seem more moral on the surface, however genuine ethics, as well as genuine education and thinking about things in a way that doesn't change with every shift of the emotion, is impossible.
I think that Ariely should have admitted that he is speaking only of what he has known, and his overview of how the denial of thinking is taken as "human nature" under capitalism gives us a great deal to feel concerned about.
Well written, can't put it down! January 5, 2009
SCI Guy (San Diego, CA)
One of the best books I've read. Easy to relate to whether you're a marketing professional, or just the average consumer. The patterns are true and the book does a great job illustrating the research and coming up with lots of great real world examples.
I pulled off the expectations stunt with a friend right after reading the book. He came over and wanted some scotch on the rocks. I poured it, handed to him, and he asked what it was. Told him it was 21-year Glenlivet (does that even exist?). He drank nearly the whole thing commenting on it's smoothness, taste, etc. Then I went into talking to him about this book, especially the expectations chapter. Tee'd it up perfectly when I told him he had actually just been drinking J&B Scotch from the 1.5 liter bottle. All of a sudden he wasn't so thrilled with the taste. Made some comments about how it was off a litte. Sure!
Anyhow, great book. I plan on reading again and mapping out how it plays out in my life. at the very least I will use it to convince my wife that the entry level Porsche Cayenne is perfectly fine for us and she doesn't need to get the Cayenne S or GTS.
Shalom!
Amazing wouldn't begin to describe this book January 3, 2009
William G. Ryan (Atlanta, GA)
At 270 pages (including TOC, Indices etc), this book is packed with an absolutely mindblowing amount of insight. I say that b/c most of the things described are things most of us seldom if ever consider. Yet they are far from trivial. All in all, this is about the most excellent book I've read. It's interesting, relevant, compelling and important. Each chapter made me rethink things about my life that to date, have been axiomatic as far as I was concerned - and all the changes are for the better. Dan Arielly is truly an admirable and amazing human being and this books contains 270 pages that shows how utterly brilliant he is
I don't think I could find anything to complain about w/ this book, hence the 5 star rating.
The strengths:
-It's very easy to read. I've read it several times and think about it frequently. I started reading the book at 10:30 PM one night and had it finished by 2:30 and I'm no speed reader (not to mention I stopped frequently to think about what I was reading)
-It's thorough. Only once did I think "Yah but he didn't consider this" (It was in chapter one and my suspicion was not only incorrect, it actually supported his contention).
-It is interesting. Like I said, I couldn't put it down and provides food for thought like nothing I've read in a long time
-It's helpful - learning why we do counterproductive things and how to change is something everyone can benefit from. I challenge anyone to read chapter 1 and say they haven't frequently made dumb decisions b/c of relativity
-It makes you think. And think, and think and think. His optimism and passion for the subject matter is infectuous, yet not once did I feel like he was trying to hard sell me on anything, preach or anything other than just express his views.
The book starts out with a story about a tragic situation that happened to the author and how he handled it. It becomes readily evident that the author is a true humanitarian and cares deeply about making life better for people. It also exudes an optimism that's really inspiring - yet does so completely indirectly and completely effectively.
Chapter 1 is IMHO, the most compelling, mainly b/c it made me realize how often I did counterproductive things b/c of this phenomenon (and worse yet, when I did them I frequently thought I was doing the right thing). If you've ever had a feeling like you're doing the right thing but getting consistently opposite results than you'd expect, it'll be particularly insightful. In my case, I realized how insanely "pound foolish" I am even though I worked very hard to be "penny wise". After all that effort I'd still have very little to show for it and now I see clear as day why that was.
The next chapter discusses irrationality of markets. So much of what we learn in Econ is based on rational decisions and this really introduces so much to explain why 'efficient market theory' explains a lot but never works quite perfectly.
The 3rd chapter, The Cost of Zero Cost will resonate with any American person to an extent that's hard to describe. Not only did I notice how frequently marketers use this technique, but realized that it's the key to just about every Infomercial's success.
The next chapter, The Cost of Social Norms is really cool but it's much different than the others in that we all know we do weird things when it comes to family and customs. It was a lot easier to accept b/c I already knew we did this - but not to this degree
Following is The influence of arousal. All I can say is YEP
Then comes Procrastination and Self-control. Personally I'm not sure i experienced this phenemenon very much but certainly know people who fit this category to a T. The implications for bosses is huge though, as well as HR departments and educators
Next is the High Price of Ownership. This is just so dead on it was like getting slugged over the head - I see this all the time, constantly and never once considered why it was. Now I know
Following is Chapter 8 - Keeping Doors open "Why Options distract us from our Main Objective" - The title says it all
Chapter 9 - The Effect of Expectations was very intuitive although something I was very familiar with b/c of my background. Makes me wish I could sell a product generically called Placebo - I could market it as a for so many different ailments I'd be rich - before the FDA and FTC locked me up.
Chapter 10 - The Power of Price - To say I felt "Dumb" after reading this chapter would be a huge understatement. But the good news is that my days of being a sucker are over and yours will be too after reading this chapter.
The next two chapters deal w/ the Context of our character. I could probably write a small book on these two chapters - they are *that* insightful and I can promise you the way you think about Character/Ethics/Morality etc will change (although Chapter 5 on arousal will have a big impact on you too)
It concludes with Beer and Free lunches which was a perfect end to a superb book
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